Festive Season Fuels Business Optimism to Multi-Year High

The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index records an increase of 20.2% (q-o-q) for Q4 2024

Mumbai, October 18, 2024: Dun & Bradstreet, a global leader in business decisioning data and analytics, released the Composite Business Optimism Index for Q4 2024, which stands at 94.8, 20.2% higher than Q3 2024. All the six optimism indices have shown improvement, with optimism for net sales reaching its highest level in 15 quarters. The Dun & Bradstreet Composite Business Optimism Index, which has been measuring the changing business sentiment of India Inc. since 2002, is a leading indicator for India’s overall growth, with a correlation co-efficient of around 80% with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Highlights

• Optimism for volume of sales stands highest in 15 quarters.
• Optimism for net profits has improved significantly, standing at its highest level since Q1 2020.
• Optimism for the level of selling prices stands highest in 10 quarters.
• Optimism for fresh hiring of employees has improved for Q4 2024, after remaining stagnant for four consecutive quarters.
• The accommodation and food services sectors are the most optimistic on three out of six parameters.

Dun & Bradstreet's Composite Business Optimism Index:  Q1 2011– Q4 2024

Note: BOI Index is for new base (2011)

Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet said, “The Dun & Bradstreet Business Optimism Index is at a high level, driven by strong consumer momentum as India enters the festive season, traditionally marked by increased spending. Businesses are set to capitalize on festive demand in Q4 2024, with selling prices expected to rise by 7 percentage points. Sales sentiment has reached a 15-quarter high, with volumes rebounding to pre-pandemic levels. Despite concerns about rising costs and inflation, profitability remains robust, indicating that businesses have adapted well. However, challenges such as fluctuating energy prices, geopolitical uncertainties, high borrowing costs and supply chain disruptions persist. Nonetheless, there is optimism for employment prospects, with renewed hiring intentions reflecting confidence in the economic recovery.”

Key findings from the Q4 2024 survey

• The optimism for sales volume improved by 14 percentage points, accommodation and food services are the most optimistic.
• The optimism for net profits improved by 11 percentage points. To this end, the wholesale and retail trade sector is the most optimistic, while the utilities sector is the least optimistic.
• The optimism for level of selling prices improved by 7 percentage points, accommodation and food services are the most optimistic on this parameter, while information and communication service sector is the least optimistic.
• The optimism for new orders increased by 14 percentage points, accommodation and food services sector is the most optimistic, while the electric, electronic and hardware manufacturing sector is the least optimistic.
• The optimism for inventory levels improved by 3 percentage points, mining sector is the most optimistic on this parameter, while the metal manufacturing sector is the least optimistic.
• The optimism for hiring of employees improved by 8 percentage points, automobiles manufacturing sector is the most optimistic, while the food, beverages and tobacco manufacturing sector is the least optimistic.

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